Folders |
Inside the Nike Cross Nationals Boys Teams - Mike NewmanPublished by
By Michael Newman for DyeStat Where there are certainties in the girls race at Saturday’s Nike Cross Nationals, the only certainty in the boys team race is expect the unexpected. Bozeman MT was a testament of that a year ago when it was not expected to win the national title and did it anyway. Loudoun Valley VA and Great Oak CA have been the top teams in the nation throughout the season. These two are close to and could finish within a few points. Last year, American Fork UT and Brentwood TN were the teams to watch and Bozeman beat both. This year it could be Mountain Vista CO and Springville UT from the Southwest, or Downers Grove North IL from the Midwest that could sneak away with the national title. Individuals Brodey Hasty of Brentwood TN is the top returnee from last year’s race finishing third behind Casey Clinger and Sam Worley. Hasty has raced a handful of times this fall due to his team opting not to run for the school this season. Hasty displayed his fitness in last Saturday’s Southeast Regional running 14:36 to win by 22 seconds. James Mwaura of Tacoma Lincoln WA is the one runner that could push Hasty. The Washington 3A State Champion ran 14:48 for 5k in that race and has been undefeated during the season including winning the Nike BorderClash by 26 seconds two weeks ago. He won by 10 seconds ahead of Bozeman’s Duncan Hamilton Jr in the Northwest Regional race. Two Midwest runners could also be Hasty’s chief competition. Dustin Horter of Lakota East OH used a strong finishing kick to win the Midwest Regional just two seconds ahead of Danny Kilrea of Lyons Township IL. Kilrea came back last Saturday to win the Foot Locker Midwest Regional race. Kilrea finished 13th last year while Horter placed 30th. Both runners could be challenging for the win. Conant Smith of Middletown OH finished second behind Horter by tenths of a second in the Ohio D1 State Meet and was five seconds back of Kilrea in the Midwest Regional. He could be someone to watch in the front in this race. Illinois runners Dylan Jacobs of Sandburg HS and Clayton Mendez of Whitney Young IL could be among the front runners in this race. Jacobs ran the fifth fastest time ever (13:57.5 for 3-miles) on the Illinois state meet course during the regular season. A viral infection slowed him down in the Illinois 3A state meet finishing sixth. He rebounded by qualifying for both this race and the Foot Locker Midwest Regional for the second year in a row. Mendez has come on strong at the end of the year. He first finished second behind Kilrea in the 3A State race and then followed by finishing fifth in the Midwest Regional and then third last week at the Foot Locker Midwest Regional. Aidan Troutner of Timpview UT went undefeated during the regular season including running the second fastest time ever (14:48.8) in winning the Utah 5A State Championship. His only setback was at the Pre-Foot Locker Race when Ryan Raff of Lehi UT and Troutner both crossed the line in 15:24 with Raff getting the win. Troutner came back to win the Southwest Regional with Raff six seconds back in fifth-place. Alex Maier of Flower Mound TX and Sam Affolder of Loudoun Valley TX could be two of the top team runners in this race. Maier finished fifth in both national races last fall. It has not been the best year for Maier as he did not finish his state race due to a breathing problem. He finished second behind Carter Cheeseman of Ft Worth Christian TX in the South Regional race. Here is a look at each of the 22 teams that will compete in Saturday’s boys race.
Loudoun Valley VA 1st – NXR Southeast Regional
Notes – The Vikings have been ranked either first or second nationally all season. They won the Virginia 4A State Championship scoring a perfect 15 points. Have gone undefeated during the regular season including winning the Great American XC Festival. Sam Affolder and Peter Morris have been the leaders up front all year for this team. Both could finish in the top 20 overall on Saturday. Meet Projection – They could win the national championship. Then again, they could finish outside of the top three. They will score low-numbers up front with Affolder and Morris finishing in the top eight team places. Colton Boglucki and Jacob Hunter could be among the top 45 team runners. The key for the team has been the five-runner spread. It has loomed in the 60’s most of the season. The spread was 46 seconds in their state race. It was 63 seconds at last week’s regional race. A spread of 54 seconds or under could lock up the national title. Another spread over 60 seconds in this race could keep the door open for other teams
Great Oak CA 1st – California D1 State Meet
Notes – The one team to watch for in the front. The Wolfpack won their fourth straight D1 State Championship last Saturday. Great Oak has gone undefeated this year including wins at the Woodbridge Invitational, the Roy Griak Invitational, and the Clovis Invitational. Carlos Carvajal has been the top runner for the team at the end of the season. Meet Projection – In my latest projection, I have Great Oak within three points of Loudoun Valley. Where Loudoun Valley has the low points up front, Great Oak will need to rely on some tight pack running to take home the national championships back to Southern California. Their spread on five runners last week was 18 seconds. Keeping that spread between 18 and 22 seconds is necessary in this meet. The Wolfpack could have seven runners in before Loudoun Valley’s fifth. Having their top five in before Loudoun’s fourth is something also to watch for.
Springville UT 2nd – NXR Southwest Regional
Notes – Springville has been the top team in Utah including winning the 5A State title. Finished second twice in invitationals this season when their fifth runner Zach Dalley was not in the lineup. The Red Devils finished second to Timpanagos at the Bob Firman Invitational on a sixth-runner tiebreaker both scoring 96 points. Brandon Garnica and Grant Gardner are possibilities for All-American honors (Top 22). Meet Projection – This team could get into the top three but also could fall out of the top five. It is a team like Loudoun Valley, powerful in the front but with a big gap between four and five. Garnica and Gardner should be in the top 10 team places. Springville could have their top four runners in before anyone else. It is the spread on five that could hurt them. The spread in the state race was 79 seconds on the top five. It was 85 seconds when they finished second in the regional. If it can get four runners in the top 35 team places and keep a five-runner spread under 72 seconds, this team could win.
Mountain Vista CO 1st – NXR Southwest Regional
Notes – The Golden Eagles could be the hottest team in the Boys field. Vista flew under the radar most of the season before winning the Colorado 5A state championship and then running their best race of the season in winning the Southwest Regional. Meet Projection – Vista is running their best when it counts. It could mean a top three finish on Saturday or even a national championship. A key for the Golden Eagles in the regional race was having Carter Dillon, Shayan Zarrin, and Parker Mackay within five seconds of each other. They will need to have that kind of race in Portland. Their spread has been near 30 seconds at the end of the year. Having one of their top runners in the first 15 team places and keeping an under 30 second spread on the top five could mean bug things for this team.
Downers Grove North IL 1st – NXR Midwest Regional
Notes – Injuries and illnesses slowed down this team early in the season including losing projected #2 runner Matt Moravec for the season with a stress fracture. The Trojans have come on strong at the end of the year going undefeated including winning the Naperville Twilight Invitational, their first state title in the program’s history, and then winning the NXR Midwest Regional title the following week. Meet Projection – Pack running is the name of the game for the Trojans. They will need that togetherness on Saturday to finish in the top three. Jacob Ridderhoff has been the team’s top runner and should lead this team. The other four runners in the top five have been interchangeable all possible of running close to the front of their pack. In their last five races, their top five spread has been under 21 seconds. It was 18 seconds in their regional race. This team could finish in the top three, but will need to keep their spread under 20 seconds as well as moving their pack up five seconds closer to the front.
St. Francis (Mtn. View) CA 1st – California D2 State Meet
Notes – This team is peaking at the right time after finishing fourth at the Clovis Invitational at the beginning of October. The Lancers won the Central Coast Section D2 championship scoring only 16 points. They followed that up by winning the California D2 State Championship. St. Francis was third in the State Meet power merge and received an at-large bid. Meet Projection – St. Francis could be the surprise team in this field with the possibility of finishing in the top five. The Lancers ran a 39 second spread in winning their state title. Shyam Kumar is coming on at the end of the year and could be one of the top 10 team placers. Getting their pack closer together (under 35 seconds) and closer to Kumar could put this team closer to the top five.
Eleanor Roosevelt CA 2nd – California D1 State Meet
Notes – It was a strong finish for the Mustangs finishing second behind Great Oak in the California D1 State Meet after finishing third in 2016. Their state finish got Roosevelt their first appearance in Portland. Their big win of the season was at the Nike Portland XC Invitational at the end of September ahead of then ranked Crater (OR) and Camas (WA). You could see their top runner Tyler Spencer in the top 20 in this race Meet Projection – Roosevelt will have two runners in the top 15 team places with Spencer and Raymon Ornelas. Their spread on their top five could keep them out of the top five teams. It was 52 seconds in the September Portland race. It was 50 seconds in last week’s state race. With this many quality teams, the third through fifth runner pack needs to get closer to the front lowering that split under 40 seconds to get into the top five.
Wayzata MN 1st – NXR Heartland Regional
Notes – The power team of the Heartland Regional and in Minnesota. The Trojans were the top team in the state as they won the AA State title and then repeating as the Heartland Regional title. Wayzata finished second behind Great Oak at the Roy Griak Invitational. Khalid Hussein has been the team’s top runner all year and could finish in the top 15 overall in Saturday’s race. Meet Projection – This team could crash the top five, led by Hussein. Grant Price was one of the team’s top runners at the beginning of the year, but an injury forced him to miss most of the season. He did run in the regional race as the team’s seventh-runner. If he is 100 percent healthy, he could finish among the top 50 in this race. Wayzata had a 55 second spread on their top five in the regional race, but only 40 seconds at state. A state type race with Price close to Hussein could mean big things for this team.
Fayetteville-Manlius NY 1st – NXR New York Regional
Notes – The Hornets seem to be peaking again at the right time. They finished second only two points behind Corning in the New York Class A State Meet. Manlius was 48 points ahead of Corning two weeks later at the New York Regional. During the season, they finished second in the Eastern States race at the Manhattan Invitational behind Christian Brothers NJ. Meet Projection – A team that you should expect to see in the top ten. The Hornets received a big boost when Garrett Brennan entered their top five in his first race in mid-October. The junior won the New York Regional individual race last Saturday. Ben Otis was the team’s top runner most of the season until Brennan’s return. The two should be close together in this race. Their spread on five jumped to 63 seconds last week because of Brennan up front, but only 46 seconds from their second through fifth runners. A split under 50 seconds on five in this race keeps it in the top 10.
Central Valley WA 1st – NXR Northwest Regional
Notes – After finishing second in the Washington 4A State Meet, the Bears bounced back to win the Northwest Regional title. Central Valley also finished third in the Bob Firman Invitational behind Timpanogos UT and Springville UT. Meet Projection – Riley Kline emerged as the team’s top runner. He should be among the top 10 team runners on Saturday and could get close to All-American honors. The team’s top five spread dipped from 61 seconds in their state race to 54 seconds at regionals. If it lowers under 45 seconds could get this team into a solid top 10 spot.
Middleton WI 2nd – NXR Heartland Regional
Notes – Middleton won the Wisconsin D1 State Meet. They came back two weeks later to earn their first trip to NXN by finishing second in the Heartland Regional. The Cardinals finished sixth during the regular season at the Roy Griak Invitational. Meet Projection – The team ran with only a 34 second spread on their top five in the regional race. It was 77 seconds at Roy Griak and 62 seconds at state. Caleb Easton and Sam Jaeger should be Middleton’s top runners on Saturday. A race like the team’s regional race could push Middleton into the top 10.
Kamiakin WA 2nd – NXR Northwest Regional
Notes – The Washington 3A State Champions followed that up by finishing second in the Northwest Regional. The team was not in any of the major regional meets. The Braves did win the Sundodger Invitational in September. Meet Projection – Kamiakin flew under the radar most of the year not being in any “major meets”. Making it to Portland this weekend was not predicted by anyone at the beginning of the season. Jonah Franco and Ryan Child could place within the top 20 team runners. Their top five spread during the seconds had been in the mid-40’s. It was 70 seconds in the regional race with Franco and Child up front. Lowering that gap under 55 seconds could move this team up.
Green Hope NC 3rd – NXR Southeast Regional
Notes – A team that was at times in the top 20 nationally during the season. They were one of the four teams that was given at-large bid to NXN after finishing third in the Southeast Regional. The Falcons won the North Carolina 4A State Meet. Green Hope also finished second in the Great American XC Festival and then third at the Manhattan Invitational the following week. Meet Projections – Green Hope ran a tight pack race at regionals keeping their top five runners within 16 seconds of each other. Expect to see a similar spread in Saturday’s race. Peyton Barish and Finn McBride should lead this team. If the two can finish in the top 40 team places keeping the spread under 20 seconds on their top five, a top 10 team finish would be a possibility.
Christian Brothers NJ 2nd – NXR Northeast Regional
Notes – The top team in the Northeast most of the year did not have their best race in the regionals finishing second last Saturday. The Colts had been strong most of the season winning the Eastern States Race at the Manhattan Invitational as well as the New Jersey Non-Public A Group and the New Jersey Meet of Champions. Meet Projection – Christian Brothers could finish in the top 15 teams in Portland, but will need Brian Hill to finish among the top 15 team runners. The spread on CBA's second through five was as high ast 26 seconds.
Bolles School FL 2nd – NXR Southeast Regional
Notes – The Fighting Bulldogs positioned themselves for Portland in big meets during the year finishing seventh in both the Great American XC Classic and the Manhattan Invitational. Bolles won the Florida 2A State Meet and then followed that up with a surprising second-place finish in last week’s Southeast Regional. Meet Projection – Charles Hicks leads this team. The junior could earn All-American honors by finishing in the top 22 in this race. Bolles makes their first NXN appearance. A top five spread under 60 seconds could get them near the top 15.
Carmel IN 2nd – NXR Midwest Regional
Notes – The Greyhounds qualified for NXN for the fourth time by finishing second behind Downers Grove North at the Midwest Regional. Carmel also reclaimed the Indiana State title after finishing second the year before. They also won the Midwest Division in the Trinity Valkyre Invitational in the middle of September. Meet Projection – Carmel has kept their five-runner spread under 40 seconds in almost all their meets during the season. It was 33 seconds in their regional race. Their pack might be too far back to make an impact in the top ten in this race. Keelan Grant and Colin Murphy could be in the top 40 team places. It’s getting that pack closer to their front two is something to watch from this team.
Corning NY 2nd – NXR New York Regional
Notes – The Hawks started out slow this season seventh in the Bowdoin Park Classic and sixth in the Manhattan Invitational. The addition of Quinn Nicholson to their line up was a boost as they won the New York Class A Championship and second in last week’s New York Regional. Meet Projection – The addition of Nicholson in their lineup helped this team get to their first NXN race. Expect Nicholson to be one of the top ten team runners in this race. Their spread has been close to 50 seconds for their top five for most of the season. It leaped to 85 seconds in last week’s regional race. It needs to come back down to the normal 50 seconds if this team has ambitions of finishing near the top 10.
Flower Mound TX 1st – NXR South Regional
Notes – Flower Mound was a surprise winner at the South Regional after finishing eighth in the Texas 6A State Meet. Part of that finish was due to their top runner Alex Maier unable to finish the race. The Jaguars finished third during the regular season at the Nike South Invitational behind both The Woodlands and College Park. They finished ahead of both teams in the regional race. Meet Projection – Jarret Kirk stepped up to the team’s #1 spot in the state meet after Maier dropped out winning the 6A individual title. Meier finished second, Kirk sixth in the regional race. Meier will be among the front runners in this race, Kirk possibly in the top 22. Flower Mound could finish near the top 15 will need to get their three to five runners within 18 seconds of Kirk. It was 28 seconds in the regional race with an 80 second overall top five spread.
Desert Vista AZ 4th – NXR Southwest Regional
Notes – The Thunder had the second lowest score ever in winning the Arizona D1 state title. Desert Vista finished second behind Great Oak at the Woodbridge Invitational and won the Desert Twilight Meet ahead of Eastwood TX. They earned an at-large bid despite finishing fourth at the Southwest Regional. Meet Projection – Could be a team in the top 15 if they duplicate their state winning race. Habtamu Cheney and Reece Donihi led the Thunder to a 24 second spread in that race on their top five. It moved up to 33 seconds in their regional race while Donihi finished 27th and Cheney finished 32nd.
Southlake Carroll TX 2nd – NXR South Regional
Notes – The Dragons make another trip to Portland after finishing second in the South Regional. They finished third in the 6A State Meet. Carroll finished fifth during the regular season at the Woodbridge Invitational. Meet Projection – Southlake Carroll could get close to the top 15, but will need their three-runner front pack led by Juan Arcila to start near the 35th—place team spot. Their spread on five in the regional race was 42 seconds. It was near 20 seconds most of the season.
Timpanogos UT 3rd – NXR Southwest Regional
Notes – Made it back-to-back NXN appearances with an at-large bid after finishing a distant third behind Mountain Vista CO and Springville UT in their Southwest Regional race. Timpanagos won the Bob Firman Invitational on a sixth-runner tiebreaker ahead of Springville. They finished second in the Utah 5A State Meet behind Springville. Meet Projection – It is tough to see this team in the top 15 in this meet. They have been consistent with their top five spreads in the mid-30’s in most of their meets. It was 35 seconds in their regional race. Ben Berlin and Bennett Benson lead this team. Getting one or both runners in the top 30 team places helps this team get close to a top 15 finish.
Xavier CT 1st – NXR Northeast Regional
Notes – One of the surprise teams in this field. The Falcons came on strong at the end of the year. After finishing second in the Connecticut Divisional race to Staples, they came back to defeat Staples in both the State Open race and then the New England Championships. The other surprise was winning the Northeast Regional Championship ahead of regional power Christian Brothers NJ. Meet Projection – This meet could be a great experience for this squad as their top four runners are all underclassmen. The top five split has been 18 seconds in their last two meets. Four runners have been Xavier’s top runner this fall. Last week it was William Curran. Getting one or two runners in the top 40 team runners could get this team close to the top 15 in the team standings. More news |
