By Michael Newman

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BOYS

XC Zone Top 35 List

Here is a list of the teams that are eligible for NXN At-large bids that will come out on Saturday:

Out of these teams, Lyons Township IL is the best bet to get that phone call on Saturday night. Let’s forget the fact that they finished fifth in the Illinois 3A State Meet. They did come back to run their best race of the year in their third-place Midwest Regional finish. The Lions being three points away from auto-qualifier Carmel IN puts them in advantageous position. Let’s also remember that this team was in the same position two years ago in 2015 when they did get an at-large and then finished ninth in Portland. Neuqua Valley IL finished behind Lyons Township in the Midwest Regional but finished ahead of them twice during the season including the IHSA 3A State Meet. They are a team that will need a lot to happen on Saturday in their favor.

The final three Nike Cross Regionals along with the California State Meet will have everyone’s focus on Saturday.

California and New York are the best bets to get a third team to Portland next week. The teams in California have been tough this fall. Going into this weekend, there are six California teams in the XC Zone Top 35 list. Great Oak is a lock to make it in. We will have to keep an eye on how close the rest of the teams are to each other when the state’s final time merge comes out. If the other five teams are extremely close, could we see four teams come out from the Golden State? Three schools are a better bet.

If you look at the merge after the New York State Meet, there were three schools within six points of each other with Burnt Hills-Ballston Lake ahead of Corning and Fayetteville-Manlius. Watch the margin of these teams in the New York Regional. A 10 to 15-point gap between the second and third-place teams could mean that only two New York schools could make it out. If it is close between these schools, then we could see all three schools in Portland.

The Northeast Regional has improved in the past three weeks but does not have that depth to match up with these other regionals. If Christian Brothers Academy NJ, who is the favorite on Saturday, finishes third, then the committee will have long conversations on whether three schools advance. The story is the same in the Southeast Regional. Loudoun Valley VA and Green Hope NC look like the teams that are the favorites to advance. If one of these two teams drop to third with a surprise team in the top two, then the committee will need to re-evaluate their thinking. The wild-card team could be Brentwood TN who is registered for the meet with Brodey Hasty and Scott Thompson on that team. Hasty has been running unattached all-season putting up some great times. It will be interesting to see how this team runs.

The results from the South Regional last Saturday could cause some problems when we get to Saturday night. The Woodlands TX had been the top ranked team in the region all season. A bad race last Saturday produced a fourth-place finish. They had been ranked as high as seventh this year and were ranked 15^th nationally heading into the regional meet. Their six-point win ahead of Southlake Carroll, who finished second in the regional, could hurt Woodlands. What could also hurt Woodlands is that no more than two Texas schools have been ranked in the top 25 nationally this fall. Eastwood TX finished third in the regional and would need to be chosen ahead of Woodlands first. Eastwood also finished third in the Texas 6A State Meet. Their second-place finish at the end of September at the Desert Classic in Arizona would have been a factor. But the fact that meet winner Desert Vista AZ finished fourth in the Southwest Regional shuts the door on Eastwood in getting in as an at-large team. Hard to see four Texas schools toeing the line in the Boys race in Portland. But then again, we don’t know what will be going through the minds of this committee.  

It is hard to see three teams making it out of the Southwest Regional. Mountain Vista CO and Springville UT are strong top five teams. There was just too big of a gap between those two teams and Timpanagos UT who finished third. A ton of things would need to happen for this team to make it back to Portland.

GIRLS

XC Zone Top 35 List

Here is a list of the teams that are eligible for NXN At-large bids that will come out on Saturday:

I believe there is not as much mystery in the Girls at-large bids that will come out on Saturday night. Then again, I could be wrong.

There are two teams that are good possibilities to make it to Portland. Broomfield CO finished second behind Mountain Vista CO at the Colorado 5A State Meet. In the Southwest Regional race, they were only nine points behind Vista in third-place. Making it to Portland last year helps their argument. The Eagles have been ranked throughout the year and should be one of those at-large teams.

Barrington IL has been the biggest surprise so far in the regionals with their third-place finish at the Midwest Regional. The Fillies did not run their best race of the year the week before finishing eighth at the IHSA 3A State Meet. They were ranked fifth in the final Illinois rankings. Add the fact that they defeated some good Illinois teams in Terre Haute in what was a strong year for Girls teams in that state. Barrington also finished ahead of Centerville OH in the regional race. Centerville was ranked in the top 15 most of the year which included a D1 state championship. I would not count out the Elks for an at-large bid if the form chart plays out as planned on Saturday with the three regional races as well as the California State Meet.

Great Oak and Buchanan will challenge each other for the D1 Championship in Saturday’s California State Meet. Both teams should be locks for Portland even of one of them falls to third. Just like on the Boys side, California Girls teams have been strong throughout the year warranting three teams making it to Portland in a week.

Fayetteville-Manlius is a HUGE lock to make it back again to Portland. A thing to watch in the New York Regional is how close Shenendehowa Central and Saratoga Springs are to each other. Only 10 points separated them in last week’s New York Federation Championships. It could push both teams to the Nike Cross Nationals. Also watch for Liverpool NY. They could be a surprise in Saturday’s race.

It is hard to see three teams coming out of the Northeast and Southeast Regional. There has been no Northeast team in the top 25 this season. North Hunterdon NJ is the favorite in Saturday’s race. The Southeast Regional is up for grabs with Cardinal Gibbons NC and Blacksburg VA possibilities to win in that race.